Recurrence after curative-intent resection remains common in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and whether postoperative incretin-based treatment choice influences outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unclear.
To determine whether postoperative initiation of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs), compared with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4is), is associated with improved recurrence-free and overall survival after curative-intent resection for HCC.
Active-comparator, new-user target trial emulation using electronic medical records from 36 hospitals across China from 2014 to 2023, with follow-up through 1 October 2025. Eligible adults had histologically confirmed HCC and T2D, underwent R0 resection and initiated a GLP-1RA or DPP-4i within postoperative days 0 to 90. Time zero was the first qualifying prescription or order date. The primary estimand was intention-to-treat; a prespecified per-protocol analysis assessed sustained adherence. The primary outcome was recurrence-free survival (RFS), treating death without recurrence as a competing event; overall survival (OS) was secondary. The study was registered with the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR2600118495).
Among 42 855 patients with HCC and T2D who underwent liver resection, 1249 were included in the final analytical cohort, including 723 DPP-4i initiators and 526 GLP-1RA initiators; median follow-up was 50.8 months. In weighted intention-to-treat analyses, GLP-1RA versus DPP-4i initiation was associated with longer RFS (cause-specific HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.96; p=0.016) and OS (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.71; p<0.001). Per-protocol analyses were directionally consistent.
Postoperative GLP-1RA initiation, compared with DPP-4i initiation, was associated with delayed recurrence and longer OS; prospective confirmation is warranted.
ChiCTR2600118495.